The Funded Status of Public Plans Keeps Improving – Albeit Modestly

The brief’s key findings are:

  • The estimated ratio of pension assets to promised benefits has increased over the last two years by 1.5 percentage points to 77.7 percent.
  • This increase reflects a boost in assets from higher contributions and solid returns, and the realization of benefit cuts scheduled for new employees.
  • The impact of these positive fundamentals is partially offset by: 1) negative cash flows associated with maturing plans; and 2) basic growth in benefit liabilities.

Public Pension Funded Levels Improve Amidst Rising Interest Rates

The brief’s key findings are:

  • Since 2019, financial markets have seen unusual turmoil, most recently a sharp rise in interest rates to curb high inflation.
  • Despite volatile asset values, the funded status of state and local pension plans has risen about 2 percentage points since 2023, and 5 points since 2019.
  • That is, the strong performance of other asset classes has more than offset the impact of rising interest rates on fixed-income assets.

Public Pensions Contend with Falling Markets and Rising Inflation

The brief’s key findings are:

  • FY 2022 has been hard for state and local pension plans, with large investment losses and rising outlays due to inflation.
  • The aggregate funded ratio fell from 78 percent to 74 percent, negating much of the gains from the previous year.
  • The impact of rising inflation on pension finances, though, has been muted by limits to plans’ cost-of-living-adjustments (COLAs).
  • However, the flip side of limited COLAs is less inflation protection for retirees, especially those not covered by Social Security.

2021 Update: Public Plan Funding Improves as Workforce Declines

The brief’s key findings are:

  • The aggregate funded ratio improved from 73 to 75 percent from FY 2020 to 2021. At the same time, contribution rates rose from 21 to 22 percent of payrolls.
  • While initial expectations for public pensions were low due to COVID, financial markets rebounded and municipal tax revenues were quite resilient.
  • Yet one other COVID-related factor – cuts to the state and local workforce – impacted public pension finances in FY 2021.
  • These cuts had little impact on funded status and required contribution amounts, but they do explain the rise in contribution rates, which are expressed as a share of lower payrolls.

Stability in Overall Pension Plan Funding Masks a Growing Divide

The brief’s key findings are:

  • Under traditional accounting rules, the aggregate funded ratio for state and local pension plans in 2017 was 72 percent, largely unchanged from recent years.
  • This overall stability, however, masks a growing gap among plans: the average funded ratio was 90 percent for the top third but just 55 percent for the bottom third.
  • The plans in the bottom third are in worse shape because, on average, they receive lower long-term investment returns and pay less of their required contributions.
  • In addition, all plans face the possibility of a market downturn, which could set back funding for several years.

State and Local Pension Plans Funding Sputters in FY 2016

The brief’s key findings are:

  • In 2016, the funded ratio of state and local pensions declined under both old and new accounting rules.
  • This decline reflected steady growth in liabilities and slow growth in assets due to poor stock performance.
  • More recently, the revival of the stock market is helping plan assets recover, with funded ratios expected to improve in 2017.
  • But, looking further ahead, funding ratios are projected to remain essentially flat due largely to the current approach of calculating required contributions.
  • Thus, to achieve more meaningful progress, plans need to establish contribution levels that will actually reduce unfunded liabilities.

The Funding of State and Local Pensions: 2015-2020

The brief’s key findings are:

  • In 2015, the funded ratio of state and local pensions using traditional accounting rules, with smoothed asset values, rose from 73 percent to 74 percent.
  • The funded ratio using new accounting rules, with market value, declined slightly.
  • Required contributions continued to climb in 2015, but plans also stepped up their payments from 86 percent to 91 percent of the required amount.
  • The funding outlook suggests steady improvement if plans realize expected returns, but a downward drift if returns fall short, as many financial experts predict.

The Funding of State and Local Pensions: 2014-2018

The brief’s key findings are:

  • During 2014, public plans adopted new accounting standards for reporting purposes but continued to use the traditional standards for funding purposes.
  • The traditional funded ratio rose from 72 percent in 2013 to 74 percent in 2014 – the first improvement since the financial crisis.
  • Required contributions continued to climb in 2014, but plans stepped up their payments from 82 percent to 88 percent of the required amount.
  • The outlook for the next several years suggests continued steady improvement in funding unless plans experience lower than assumed asset returns.

The Funding of State and Local Pensions: 2013-2017

The brief’s key findings are:

  • Despite a strong stock market, the funded status of public plans in 2013 remained unchanged at 72 percent for two reasons:
    • actuarially smoothed assets grew modestly; and
    • CalPERS, one of the nation’s largest plans, significantly revised its reported funded ratio.
  • An encouraging sign is that sponsors appear to be paying a larger share of their annual required contribution.
  • Going forward, the funded ratio is projected to gradually move above 80 percent, assuming historical stock market returns.

The Funding of State and Local Pensions: 2012-2016

The brief’s key findings are:

  • During 2012, using current GASB standards, the funded status of public plans declined slightly from 75 percent to 73 percent.
  • This decline reflected slow asset growth, which was only partly mitigated by reduced liability growth.
  • States and localities also continued to fall short on their annual required contribution payments.
  • Going forward, the funded ratio is projected to gradually move above 80 percent, assuming a healthy stock market.

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